UK Election Forecasts and Results 2017 and 2019..
Final Result was 365 seats for the conservatives and 285 for all the other parties.
This gives an 80 seat majority, but reduced to 79 as the speaker does not vote.
With the second General Election in two years, everyone is waiting to see if there will be a government that is NOT impeded by a Hung Parliament.
Will Boris Johnson have a sufficient majority to push through the Conservative policies or not?
The Exit polls show he will. But how accurate are they? The one shown below, in 2017, was very close.
There are 650 seats and 326 are needed for a minimum majority, but that would not be enough, as it only takes one MP to vote against their party and it falls apart.
If the Exit polls are right, and the Conservatives get 368 seats, THAT would be a good majority, with a combined number of only 282 (Labour, SNP and LibDem) able to vote in opposition.
UK General Election Forecast Result 2019
The Exit Polls for the 2019 General Election gave the following estimates:
- 368 Conservatives
- 191 Labour
- 55 SNP
- 13 Lib Dems
- 23 Others …
UK General Election Result 2019
The 2019 General Election gave the following seats:
-
- 365 Conservatives (3 less than Exit Poll forecast)
- 203 Labour (12 more than Exit Poll forecast)
- 48 Scottish National Party (SNP) (7 less than Exit Poll forecast)
- 11 Liberal Democrat (2 less than Exit Poll forecast)
- 23 Others…
- 8 Democratic Unionist Party
- 7 Sinn Féin
- 6 Plaid Cymru
- 2 Social Democratic & Labour Party
- 2 Green
- 2 Alliance Party
There were 47,587,254 registered voters for 2019. The turnout for 2019 looks like about 67.3%. This is lower than the 68.8% in 2017.
UK General Election Forecast Result 2017
The Exit Polls for the 2017 General Election gave the following estimates:
-
- 314 Conservatives
- 266 Labour
- 34 SNP
- 14 Lib Dems
- 22 Others…
- 3 Plaid Cymru
- 1 Green party
- 18 Others
UK General Election Result 2017
The 2017 General Election gave the following seats:
- 317 Conservatives (3 more than Exit Poll forecast)
- 262 Labour (4 fewer than Exit Poll forecast)
- 35 SNP (1 more than Exit Poll forecast)
- 12 Lib Dems (2 fewer than Exit Poll forecast)
- 23 Others (1 more than Exit Poll forecast) …
- 10 DUP
- 7 Sinn Fein
- 4 Plaid Cymru
- 1 Green Party
- Speaker
- 1 Independent
In a few more hours we will see how close the 2019 Exit Polls are.
2017 Results: parliament.uk/…/CBP-7979
122.1 - 813,498
Votes by Party in 2019:
13,966,451 Conservative 43.6% (most for Leave but not all)
10,295,907 Labour 32.2% (some for Leave some for Remain)
3,696,423 Liberal Democrat 11.5% (most for Remain)
1,242,380 Scottish National Party 3.9% (most for leave the UK, but to Remain in the EU)
865,697 Green 2.7%
642,323 Brexit party 2.0% (All for Leave No Deal)
244,127 Democratic Unionist Party 0.8%
181,853 Sinn Fein 0.6% (All to Remain)
153,265 Plaid Cymru 0.5%
134,115 Alliance Party 0.4%
118,737 Social Democratic & Labour Party 0.4%
93,123 Ulster Unionist Party 0.3%
29,201 Yorkshire Party 0.1%
Plus more Parties but with under 25,000 votes each.
St Ives remained Conservative with 25,365 votes, getting an increased 49.3% of the vote.
An increase of 6.2.
Arundel & South Downs is now confirmed held by the Conservatives with a drop to 57.9% from their 62.4% in 2017. Liberal Democrat took 21.2%, they only had 7.9% in 2017.
St Ives is the last one and must be very close.
Conservatives now on 364. Will it stay at 364 (a 78 seat majority) or will it reach 365 for an 80 seat majority ?
St Ives 2017 Election Result
Con 22,120 43.2% of the vote.
LibDem 21,808 42.6% of the vote.
Lab 7,298 14.2% of the vote.
Conservative Vote share and seats in 2015, 2017, 2019 General Elections:
36.9% of the vote in 2015, gave them 330 seats
42.4% of the vote in 2017, gave them 317 seats
43.6% of the vote in 2019, gave them 363 seats, with two more to be declared.
Waiting for the last two seats now..
Arundel & South Downs: This was Conservative in 2017 with 62.4% of the vote
St Ives: This was Conservative in 2017 with 43.2% of the vote, but 42.6% to Liberal Democrats.
364 Conservative seats does look like the final result.
At 6:45 am, the Conservatives had won 361 seats, from the 645 of the 650 seats declared, whilst Labour had 203 seats.
Some have mentioned that the 2019 result may outshine the majority held by Margaret Thatcher in the 1987 election.
The 1987 UK General Election results were:
376 seats for Conservative 42.2% of vote.
229 seats for Labour 30.8% of vote.
22 seats for Liberal-SDP Alliance 22.6% of vote.
9 seats for Ulster Unionist Party UUP 1.3% of vote.
3 seats for Scottish National Party SNP
3 seats for Social Democratic and Liberal Party SDLP
3 seats for Plaid Cymru
3 seats for Democratic Unionist Party DUP
1 seat for Sinn Fein
1 seat for Ulster Popular Unionist Party UPIP
326 Seats were needed for a majority, which meant that the Conservatives had a 102 seat majority in 1987.
In one English Constituency, Putney, there was a change TO Labour from Conservative in the 2019 General Election.
Labour, Fleur Anderson, received 22,780 votes, 45.1%, +4.4%.
Conservative, Will Sweet, received 18,006 votes, 35.7%, -8.4%
The 2019 Party Leaders.
Boris Johnson, Conservative Leader, retained his seat at Uxbridge and South Ruislip with an increased majority, 52.6% of the votes. Labour came 2nd with 37.6%.
Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Leader, retained his seat at Islington North, with a reduced majority, 64.3%. LibDems came 2nd with 15.6%.
Jo Swinson, Lib-Dem leader, has LOST her seat at Dunbartonshire East to the SNP, having gained just 36.8% of the votes. The SNP gained 37.1% of the votes.
At 5:15 am, the Conservatives had won 335 seats, from 610 of the 650 seats declared, whilst Labour had 199 seats.
That is an overall majority of the House for the Conservatives. 326 was needed. THeir majority is currently 9 with another 40 seats to be declared.
At 5:00 am, the Conservatives had won 318 seats, from the 584 of the 650 seats declared, an increase of 41, whilst Labour had 193 seats, having lost 53.
Conservatives need another 8 seats to give them the barest majority, out of the remaining 66 seats to be announced.
SNP have gained 12 to give them 44 seats.