IMF Reports on World Economies 2020 – 2021

Many News reports are highlighting the negative side of the very recent IMF economic reports, taking account of the current COVID-19 pandemic.

An example being the IMF’s prediction of an 8.1% shrinking of the Lithuanian economy, in 2020.

But the headlines miss the projected 2021 recovery of 8.2% in 2021.

This results in a slight increase by 2021 of 0.1%.

Ten Countries show an increase by 2021, according to IMF figures, and these are:

1. Indonesia down by 0.5% in 2020, then up by 8.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7.7% by 2021.
2. Malaysia down by 1.7% in 2020, then up by 9% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7.3% by 2021.
3. Serbia down by 3% in 2020, then up by 7.5% in 2021, giving a total increase of 4.5% by 2021.
4. Malta down by 2.8% in 2020, then up by 7% in 2021, giving a total increase of 4.2% by 2021.
5. Korea down by 1.2% in 2020, then up by 3.4% in 2021, giving a total increase of 2.2% by 2021.
6. Bulgaria down by 4% in 2020, then up by 6% in 2021, giving a total increase of 2% by 2021.
7. Hungary down by 3.1% in 2020, then up by 4.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 1.1% by 2021.
8. Saudi Arabia down by 2.3% in 2020, then up by 2.9% in 2021, giving a total increase of 0.6% by 2021.
9. Estonia down by 7.5% in 2020, then up by 7.9% in 2021, giving a total increase of 0.4% by 2021.
10. Lithuania down by 8.1% in 2020, then up by 8.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 0.1% by 2021.

The remainder show a decrease, from as low as 0.1% up to a decrease of 4.9%, by 2021.

These are:

1. Luxembourg down by 4.9% in 2020, then up by 4.8% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.1% by 2021.
2. Latvia down by 8.6% in 2020, then up by 8.3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.3% by 2021.
3. Poland down by 4.6% in 2020, then up by 4.2% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.4% by 2021.
4. Singapore down by 3.5% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
5. Ireland down by 6.8% in 2020, then up by 6.3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
6. Denmark down by 6.5% in 2020, then up by 6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
7. Taiwan down by 4% in 2020, then up by 3.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
8. Australia down by 6.7% in 2020, then up by 6.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.6% by 2021.
9. Thailand down by 6.7% in 2020, then up by 6.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.6% by 2021.
10. Cyprus down by 6.5% in 2020, then up by 5.6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.9% by 2021.
11. Hong Kong down by 4.8% in 2020, then up by 3.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.9% by 2021.
12. Nigeria down by 3.4% in 2020, then up by 2.4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1% by 2021.
13. Romania down by 5% in 2020, then up by 3.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.1% by 2021.
14. United States down by 5.9% in 2020, then up by 4.7% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.2% by 2021.
15. Slovak Republic down by 6.2% in 2020, then up by 5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.2% by 2021.
16. Iceland down by 7.2% in 2020, then up by 6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.2% by 2021.
17. New Zealand down by 7.2% in 2020, then up by 5.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.3% by 2021.
18. Germany down by 7% in 2020, then up by 5.2% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.8% by 2021.
19. South Africa down by 5.8% in 2020, then up by 4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.8% by 2021.
20. Canada down by 6.2% in 2020, then up by 4.2% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2% by 2021.
21. Russia down by 5.5% in 2020, then up by 3.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2% by 2021.
22. Japan down by 5.2% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.2% by 2021.
23. Switzerland down by 6% in 2020, then up by 3.8% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.2% by 2021.
24. Belgium down by 6.9% in 2020, then up by 4.6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.3% by 2021.
25. Brazil down by 5.3% in 2020, then up by 2.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.4% by 2021.
26. UK down by 6.5% in 2020, then up by 4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.5% by 2021.
27. Austria down by 7% in 2020, then up by 4.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.5% by 2021.
28. Belarus down by 6% in 2020, then up by 3.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.5% by 2021.
29. Slovenia down by 8% in 2020, then up by 5.4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.6% by 2021.
30. France down by 7.2% in 2020, then up by 4.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.7% by 2021.
31. Euro Area down by 7.5% in 2020, then up by 4.7% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.8% by 2021.
32. Finland down by 6% in 2020, then up by 3.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.9% by 2021.
33. Portugal down by 8% in 2020, then up by 5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 3% by 2021.
34. Mexico down by 6.3% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 3.3% by 2021.
35. Spain down by 8% in 2020, then up by 4.3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 3.7% by 2021.
36. Ukraine down by 7.7% in 2020, then up by 3.6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.1% by 2021.
37. Croatia down by 9% in 2020, then up by 4.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.1% by 2021.
38. Italy down by 9.1% in 2020, then up by 4.8% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.3% by 2021.
39. Netherlands down by 7.5% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.5% by 2021.
40. Greece down by 10% in 2020, then up by 5.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.9% by 2021.

Turkey is missing from the above figures, as they are neither an increase or a decrease. The IMF predicts a 5% decrease in 2020 and a 5% increase in 2021, resulting in no real change.

Five more countries are not even having a predicted drop in 2020, and show these figures:

1. China up by 1.2% in 2020, then up by 9.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 8% by 2021.
2. Indonesia up by 0.5% in 2020, then up by 8.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7.7% by 2021.
3. Philippines up by 0.6% in 2020, then up by 7.6% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7% by 2021.
4. India up by 1.9% in 2020, then up by 7.4% in 2021, giving a total increase of 5.5% by 2021.
5. Vietnam up by 2.7% in 2020, then up by 7% in 2021, giving a total increase of 4.3% by 2021.

Source Figures: International Monetary Fund (IMF) – World Economic Outlook, April 2020

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